Score simulation — how much does each move matter?

TL;DR

• Paying off a maxed card can jump FICO 40-80 points within one statement cycle. Biggest single move available to most people.
• Closing your oldest card does nothing for ~10 years, then hits 10-30 points when it ages off the report.
• Opening a new card costs ~5-10 points short-term, recovers most of it within 12 months, but the new account lowers your average age of accounts permanently.

The disclaimer

FICO doesn't publish point impacts. Every "score simulator" is estimating. These numbers come from community data (Doctor of Credit, myFICO forum reports, Reddit r/CRedit data-sharing threads) and cover typical files — yours may react differently based on your specific profile.

Use these as directional guidance, not guarantees.

High-impact moves

Paying off a maxed card (90%+ util → under 9%)

Impact: +40 to +80 FICO points, +60 to +110 VantageScore points. Timing: reflects in the next statement-close report (2-6 weeks). Notes: the biggest single win for most files. If you have one card dragging you down, this is always worth it.

Opening a new credit card

Impact: -5 to -10 FICO immediately, most recovered within 12 months. Timing: hard inquiry hits within days; new account shows on first statement close. Notes: lowers your average age of accounts permanently. On a thin file with only 2-3 accounts, this drop is bigger (-15 to -20).

Paying off a loan (auto, personal, student)

Impact: usually -5 to -15 points when the account closes. Surprising to most people. Timing: immediate when the loan status updates. Notes: paying off an installment loan closes the account, which reduces your open credit mix. The closed account still helps for ~10 years, then drops off.

Closing a credit card

Impact (immediate): 0 to -20 depending on overall utilization change. Impact (in 10 years when it ages off): -10 to -30 if it's an older account. Notes: closing lowers your total credit limit, raising overall utilization percentage. If the card had a meaningful limit ($5k+) and you carry any balances elsewhere, this drops util more than people expect. Never close an old card with no annual fee.

Medium-impact moves

Late payment (30 days)

Impact: -60 to -110 FICO, -30 to -50 VantageScore. Bigger hit on clean files. Timing: immediate on next bureau report. Recovery: 6-24 months for most of the damage. Full recovery at 7 years (when it ages off the report). Notes: the single most damaging thing you can do to a credit file. Autopay every minimum every card, always.

60-day late

Impact: -80 to -140 FICO. Timing: immediate. Notes: much worse than 30-day. Avoid at all costs.

Collection / charge-off

Impact: -100 to -180 FICO. Timing: immediate. Recovery: takes years. Even paid collections drag for the full 7-year reporting period (though FICO 9+ and VantageScore 3.0+ weight paid collections lower).

Credit limit increase (soft pull)

Impact: +5 to +20 depending on how much your utilization drops. Timing: within one statement cycle. Notes: the best free move in credit. Soft-pull CLIs (Discover, CapOne, Amex, Barclays, Apple) run every 6 months build limit slowly, lower ongoing utilization, and cost zero points.

Paying down a moderately-used card (30% → 5%)

Impact: +10 to +25. Timing: next statement cycle. Notes: smaller than the "maxed → zero" case but still meaningful. Moving from 30% to 5% crosses a threshold.

Low-impact moves

Opening a checking/savings account

Impact: 0. Banks pull ChexSystems for deposit accounts, not the credit bureaus. Score unchanged.

Paying on time

Impact: 0-1 points per month. Payment history is cumulative — you're building equity, not jumping points.

Authorized user added

Impact: varies wildly. +30 to +60 if the primary account is old, low-util, never-late. +5 to +15 if the account is average. Negative if the primary account has any lates.

Credit lock / freeze

Impact: 0. Freezes don't affect scores.

Things that don't move the score at all

• Income or salary
• Employment changes
• Address changes
• Having a checking account or savings account
• Debit card usage
• Rent payments (unless specifically reported via RentTrack or a similar service, which is rare)
• Utility payments (same caveat)

Credit scoring only sees what's reported to the credit bureaus by lenders — revolving credit, installment loans, collections, and sometimes medical debt.

Simulation scenarios

Scenario A: the pre-mortgage optimization

• Start: 688 FICO 8, overall utilization 45%, 1 card at 85%.
• Pay down the 85% card to 5%. Pay the others to 1-5%. AZEO.
• Request soft CLIs at Discover and Amex.
• Result: 730-745 FICO 8 by next statement cycle.
• Time: 6-8 weeks.

Scenario B: the thin file newcomer

• Start: 620 FICO 8, 1 card opened 6 months ago, no other credit.
• Open a secured card. Use it for gas, pay in full.
• Spouse adds you as AU on their 8-year-old card with $20k limit and $200 balance.
• Result: 660-680 within 6 weeks of the AU tradeline reporting.

Scenario C: the churn recovery

• Start: 750 FICO 8, just opened 5 new cards in 6 months.
• Stop applying. Let time pass.
• 6 months later: inquiries start dampening, new accounts have history. ~760.
• 12 months later: fully recovered. ~770-775.

Practical takeaway

• Fast movers: utilization, inquiries. Measured in weeks.
• Slow movers: length of history, payment history accumulation. Measured in years.
• Cheapest score gains: pay down util, run soft-pull CLIs. Free.
• Don't chase score changes for their own sake — optimize only when you have a specific lender target in the next 90 days.